Why Morgan’s analyst still calls CSL an appealing buy after an 88% rebound

# Snapshot

# Why the big fall and rebound

CSL's share plunge earlier in the year reflected several concrete problems: the announced plan to spin off Seqirus (its influenza vaccine business), softer-than-expected plasma demand that led to repeated earnings downgrades, and the surprise departure of former CEO Paul McKenzie in February 2026. Those developments prompted analysts and investors to revalue the company and led to impairment and restructuring items in FY2026.

The recovery began once CSL published its FY2026 results on 18 August. While revenue fell 1% year on year to US$15.8 billion, that figure beat management's revised guidance issued in May (US$15.2 billion). The annual report also included significant one-off impairments and restructuring charges, which masked the underlying performance. Excluding exceptional items, underlying earnings held up better than the headline loss suggested.

# Broker view: why buy now

Morgans analyst Damien Nguyen labels CSL "appealing" based on three practical points:

• Defensive, recurring earnings: Demand for CSL's plasma therapies, vaccines and specialty medicines is viewed as largely resilient to macroeconomic cycles.
• Global market leadership: The firm operates at scale across multiple product lines and geographies, which supports pricing and distribution advantages.
• Reset underway: Management's FY2026 actions and clearer guidance for FY2027 have reduced uncertainty. CSL expects steady revenue in FY2027 and forecasts about 5% growth in underlying NPAT.

Nguyen's buy recommendation rests on the idea that the FY2026 outcome provides confidence that earlier rounds of earnings downgrades were the low point.

# Dividends and investor timing

CSL declared a final unfranked dividend of $2.277 per share. Shareholders who own the stock at market close on 8 September will receive that payment on 2 October. At recent prices, this equates to an approximate 2.4% unfranked yield composed partly of trailing and partly of pending payments.

# What to watch next

• Execution on the Seqirus spin-off plan and related timing or terms.
• Plasma demand trends and whether volumes re-accelerate or stay subdued.
• FY2027 trading updates and whether management hits the ~5% underlying NPAT growth target.
• Market reaction to any further leadership or structural changes.

# Bottom line