Theguardian iconTheguardianSep 2, 2026

Temperature check: alarm as prediction markets lean into weather and climate bets

Climate experts warn that US Kalshi and Polymarket users are 'gamifying disasters' as they bet on events like heatwaves and daily temperatures Online prediction markets, saturated by money staked on sport, crypto and politics, have now set their sights on a promising new area of growth: betting on the future livability

Temperature check: alarm as prediction markets lean into weather and climate bets

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Climate experts warn that US Kalshi and Polymarket users are 'gamifying disasters' as they bet on events like heatwaves and daily temperatures Online prediction markets, saturated by money staked on sport,...

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Climate experts warn that US Kalshi and Polymarket users are 'gamifying disasters' as they bet on events like heatwaves and daily temperatures Online prediction markets, saturated by money staked on sport, crypto and politics, have now set their sights on a promising new area of growth: betting on the future livability

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