Rumors of War

The useful part

Europe Is Preparing For Something Bigger PNW STAFF Something has changed in the atmosphere surrounding the war in Ukraine. For more than four years, Western governments have worried about escalation with Russia while operating under one critical assumption: the war could be contained. Ukraine would fight, Europe and America would supply weapons, Russia would threaten retaliation, and NATO would reinforce its eastern frontier.

How it works

• Recent developments are raising uncomfortable questions about how much longer that assumption will hold.
• Ukrainian officials now say Russian military leaders have been ordered to prepare several possible operational scenarios for a new offensive in northern Ukraine, including the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions.
• That does not mean such an offensive is imminent, nor does it mean Russia has assembled the enormous force necessary to capture Kyiv.
• Kyiv appearing again in Russian military planning should get everyone's attention.
• Perhaps more importantly, what happens if this time Ukraine begins to buckle?

What to take from it

Putin Needs A Way To Change The War Russia has spent years grinding forward at enormous cost, c...

Details worth keeping

The fighting itself would remain largely inside Ukraine. What happens if Russia decides to threaten it again?