UN: Current El Niño could become the strongest on record and is likely to persist into early 2027

Niño is intensifying and could become the strongest event since systematic records began. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported a near 100% probability that El Niño will continue through February 2027, driven by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Strong El Niño events shift global rainfall and temperature patterns. The WMO cautions that a very strong event can increase the frequency and intensity of droughts, heavy rains, tropical storms, and other extreme weather across multiple regions.

• Ocean temperatures in this event exceed normal values by more than 2°C (3.6°F), placing the event in the top "very strong" category of recorded cases since 1950.
• The agency used language indicating unprecedented strength potential, saying the event could be "stronger than anything since our monitoring began." WMO Secretary‑General Celeste Saulo expressed that concern at a Geneva briefing.

The phenomenon is already affecting vulnerable regions. The WMO noted a severe food crisis in Central America's Dry Corridor tied to El Niño conditions. Global effects expected over the coming months include:

• Shifts in rainfall patterns that can bring drought to some areas and heavy rains to others.
• Higher risk of heat extremes and tropical cyclone activity changes in affected basins.
• A temporary rise in global average temperatures, with WMO climate prediction staff saying 2027 has the potential to be the warmest year on record.

The WMO described its forecast certainty as unusually high for this stage, indicating near certainty of persistence through at least February 2027. The agency expects the event to peak toward the end of the current year, with effects continuing into 2027.

WMO officials said the organization is scaling up preparedness and early warning efforts. That work aims to provide climate intelligence to the UN and humanitarian system so governments and agencies can take early action. Concrete measures mentioned include advising agricultural shifts—such as switching to drought‑resistant crops—along with support for disaster management and climate‑sensitive sectors including health, energy and water resources.

• WMO and national meteorological centers' updates on sea surface temperature evolution and trade wind behavior.
• Regional early warnings for drought or heavy rainfall and humanitarian alerts tied to food security.
• Global temperature monitoring through 2027 to see whether the predicted temperature "pulse" materializes.

WMO Secretary‑General Celeste Saulo warned that if the current trajectory continues the event "may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began." UN Secretary‑General Antonio Guterres said, "El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up." WMO climate prediction chief Wilfran Moufouma Okia said 2027 "has the potential to be the warmest on record."