U.S. Seniors Are Projected to Outnumber Children by 2029

The U.S. population's age structure is shifting quickly. According to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2023 National Population Projections, Americans age 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 18 for the first time in 2029. That year the bureau projects 69.9 million people age 65+ compared with 69.3 million under 18.

Two demographic trends combined to produce the crossover.

• Aging baby boomers: The final members of the baby boom generation (born in 1964) will reach age 65 in 2029. Everyone who will be 65 by that year has already been born, so near‑term increases in the senior population are largely fixed.

• Falling fertility: U.S. birth rates have declined over the long term, reducing the number of children entering the population and pushing the crossover earlier than older estimates suggested.

• 2025 (projected): About 72.0 million children versus 64.6 million seniors.
• 2029 (projected crossover): 69.3 million children versus 69.9 million seniors.
• 2040 (projected): 67.8 million children and 78.3 million seniors.
• 2060 (projected): 64.3 million children and 88.8 million seniors.

Because those who will reach 65 by 2029 are already born, the senior population increase through that year is unusually predictable. The child population is more sensitive to future fertility and migration, so long‑term child counts carry more uncertainty.

The shift in age structure can affect several concrete areas:

• Labor supply: A larger share of the population is at retirement age, which can reduce the working‑age population and influence labor markets and productivity.
• Public spending: Retirement programs, pensions, and healthcare programs for older Americans may face greater demand and fiscal pressure.
• Healthcare demand: An older population typically requires more healthcare services and long‑term care resources.
• Future workforce size: With fewer children entering adulthood relative to seniors, the potential future workforce may grow more slowly.

• Annual Census updates and projections will refine timing as fertility and migration data come in.
• Policy responses that affect labor force participation, immigration, family policy, and healthcare funding will shape how the demographic shift translates into economic outcomes.

The U.S. move to a larger senior population than child population is not speculative for the near term. The combination of the baby boom cohort aging into retirement and sustained low fertility makes the 2029 crossover a clear, near‑term milestone under current Census projections.