Thursday links: solvency is a necessity

"Being right is a luxury good. Solvency is a necessity. Path dependency is the most underrated concept in finance — the sequence of returns matters as much as the returns." — Jeff Malec

This link roundup collects recent reporting and commentary across markets, strategy, venture capital, public health, and geopolitics. The central practical message is explicit: maintaining solvency and managing sequence-of-returns risk should shape portfolio decisions and business strategy.

Several pieces focus on how higher rates change the way you should think about bonds. One item argues rising rates should alter portfolio assumptions about bond returns and behavior. Another warns that your bond allocation should not give you "agita"—that is, it should not create anxiety that could force poor decisions.

• Design fixed-income allocations to provide cash-flow or liquidity buffers so you do not have to sell into weakness.
• Keep allocations that match your time horizon and liquidity needs rather than chasing yield alone.

A linked essay argues that investment strategy should evolve over time. That echoes the solvency theme: as personal circumstances, market environments, and risk tolerances change, the strategy that once worked may become inappropriate. Another link reflects on the career of Victor Niederhoffer as a cautionary example of volatile outcomes and career risks in markets.

• Update asset allocation as life stages and liabilities change.
• Consider sequence-of-returns exposure in retirement planning and early-decade performance slumps.
• Treat rules for position sizing, leverage, and liquidity as active controls to preserve solvency.

Several links look at venture capital in the wake of AI winners. One critique says venture capital "lost its way," and reporting shows VCs who missed OpenAI and Anthropic are reassessing sourcing and diligence processes. A separate post notes that not every business is meant to scale, but taking VC money creates an obligation: if you accept it, your business model and execution must be built to scale.

• VC firms are revisiting playbooks after missing outsized AI returns.

• Some discussion centers on whether any businesses are AI-proof and how VCs will adapt selection criteria.

• Tech/markets: A chart notes that $13 billion for Hugging Face is manageable for Nvidia, illustrating how mega-cap balance sheets change deal dynamics.

• Geopolitics: Reporting includes claims that Russia is helping Iran build supersonic missiles and links about regional dynamics tied to foreign aircraft gifts and bank stakes.
• Economy: The data center boom is accelerating and employer health costs are expected to surge in 2027, items with implications for corporate expense planning and infrastructure investment.

The compilation keeps returning to a simple, actionable priority: manage solvency risk first. That means aligning bond allocations with liquidity needs, adjusting strategy as circumstances change, and treating financing choices (like taking VC capital) as binding operational commitments. Scan the links that matter most to you and use them to test whether your current allocations and business choices would survive adverse sequences of returns.