Gold's week of whiplash sets up a payrolls-driven Friday

The useful part

Gold has spent the week reacting almost entirely to shifting Fed rate-hike expectations rather than to any fresh catalyst of its own, and today's non-farm payrolls report is the next test of that repricing. Currently near $4,475, the metal has clawed back most of a sharp mid-week slide that took it lower than $4,300, its worst level in roughly a month. A weaker-than-expected payrolls print would reinforce the case for the Fed holding steady this month, supportive for gold, while a stronger number would push hike odds back up and likely pressure the metal.

How it works

• Central bank demand, including this week's reported shift of Dutch gold reserves out of North America, remains a supportive structural backdrop rather than a near-term price driver.
• Gold fell to a roughly four-week low earlier this week as a firmer dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on the metal.
• Today's August non-farm payrolls report is the next major catalyst, with consensus expectations around 55,000 jobs added, a 4.1% unemployment rate, and 0.3% monthly wage growth.
• Separately, the Dutch central bank confirmed this week it had moved 86 metric tons of gold reserves...