US drayage capacity tightens as converging trends push rates higher

# What's happening

# Concrete indicators

• Index is 8.2% higher year on year and is expected to remain elevated in the near term.
• Container dwell times for imports awaiting inland transport are averaging 6–7 days, with some terminals reporting up to 14 days.
• The port complex of Los Angeles and Long Beach saw container dwell rates rise in August to their highest level in over 15 months.

# Where the stress is concentrated Ports and regions named as experiencing congestion or elevated dwell times include Los Angeles/Long Beach, Houston (called out as a particular pain point), Chicago, Memphis, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Savannah, and Dallas/Fort Worth. Rail bottlenecks around Chicago and Memphis add to inland congestion risks.

# Why this is happening now Multiple specific trends are combining:

• Peak season timing and shape: This year's peak is described as plateaued—earlier, more extended and less spiky—so elevated volumes persist longer than normal.
• Sector-driven demand: Industrial shipments tied to data-centre hardware, power equipment and other industrial traffic have added to the load at several ports.
• Trucking market shifts: Truckload pricing has risen and overall trucking capacity has shrunk. A federal crackdown on non-domiciled drivers and on drivers with limited English has reduced the drayage driver pool, prompting some drivers to move into truckload work.
• Landside constraints: Equipment availability, terminal turn times and reduced appointment flexibility are limiting throughput.
• Waterway disruptions: Low water levels in the Panama Canal have restricted transits, creating another potential source of delay for west-side flows.

# How carriers and providers are responding Carriers and intermodal providers are flagging the constraint in public updates and earnings calls. Some operators are choosing not to pursue growth that would force reliance on expensive third-party drayage. Others report limited outsourcing of drayage as a buffer against market tightening.

# Practical actions for cargo owners and shippers

• Build schedule float into shipments to absorb longer dwell times and terminal delays.
• Diversify supplier and gateway options to reduce exposure to any single port or terminal bottleneck.
• Conduct due diligence on drayage and landside partners and maintain contingency plans for accessing dray capacity.
• Monitor developments at Houston and major rail chokepoints like Chicago and Memphis, since localized congestion can cascade across inland networks.

# Near-term outlook

# Bottom line The drayage market is showing tangible signs of strain rather than isolated disruptions. Shippers should treat elevated rates and longer dwell times as operational realities for the near term and use planning, diversification and contingency arrangements to manage risk.