Caspian Sea Retreat Raises Water Security and Economic Risks for Kazakhstan

# Overview

Kazakhstan is confronting a fast-moving environmental and resource challenge: the Caspian Sea's water level is declining along the country's coastline. The retreat is visible on the ground — new landforms have appeared and shorelines have shifted — and authorities, scientists and industry participants are assessing how this will affect ports, fisheries, tourism and drinking water supplies.

# What's changing and why it matters

Locally named features such as Rybachy have appeared as the sea pulls back. The change matters because Kazakhstan's Caspian coastline supports commercial ports that are part of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route linking China and Europe. Shallowing waters can limit access for deep-draft vessels, force adjustments to navigation channels, and require modifications to coastal facilities. The full economic cost is not yet systematically assessed.

# Economic risks and infrastructure implications

Tourism and coastal facilities: Recreation bases and tourist infrastructure built along current shorelines may become stranded or require rebuilding closer to the waterline. Kazakhstan has invested in developing Aktau and other Caspian destinations, making these sites vulnerable if shorelines continue to retreat.

# Fisheries and local livelihoods

# Climate projections cited

Researchers at universities in Bremen, Giessen and Utrecht provided scenario-based projections cited in local reporting. Under a lower-emissions scenario, the Caspian's surface area could shrink by roughly 23% and its level drop by about nine meters by the end of the century. Under a higher-emissions scenario, the surface area decline could be around 34% with a similar fall in water level. These are long-term scenario outcomes rather than short-term forecasts, but they illustrate the scale of potential change.

# Kazakhstan's policy response

Kazakhstan is updating its broader water governance framework while the Caspian changes unfold. A new Water Code came into force as part of that overhaul, signaling an institutional push to improve monitoring and management of water resources. The sea's decline adds urgency to these reforms and to efforts to quantify economic and ecological impacts.

# What to watch next

• Systematic economic assessment of port, transport and tourism costs tied to falling levels.
• Scientific monitoring of habitat changes and fish population responses, especially sturgeon species.
• Adaptation choices at coastal cities such as Aktau: relocation, infrastructure modification or continued investments in existing sites.
• Regional coordination with other Caspian countries on navigation, resource use and environmental monitoring.