Fixed-price short-term PPAs for solar and wind: why headline prices can mislead

# What the quoted fixed price actually means

# Why seasonal selection matters Marketers and offtakers have concentrated on winter hedges. The winter window (October 2026 to March 2027) showed much higher baseload—about 152 EUR/MWh—so applying seasonal capture rates (76% for solar and 84% for wind) produces winter fixed prices near 100 EUR/MWh for solar and 112 EUR/MWh for wind. On paper, that looks attractive.

# Contract terms that change realised value Headline fixed prices routinely omit contract features that shift economics by several EUR/MWh. Key structural differences to check:

• Negative-price clauses: these vary substantially and matter most for solar where negative prices cluster during peak hours.

• Guarantees of Origin (GoO): GoO value can be bundled into the fixed price or sold separately, changing the cashflow split.

Without reconciling these items, price-only comparisons are unreliable.

# Practical checklist for comparing short-term PPAs When assessing fixed-price PPA offers, align on these concrete items before comparing numbers:

• Capture-rate assumptions: confirm whether quoted prices use 12‑month rolling or seasonal capture rates and the exact percentages applied.
• Volume coverage: map the contract period to the asset's seasonal production distribution (solar vs wind differences matter).
• Treatment of negative prices: get the precise clause and run scenarios with historical negative-price hours.
• Subsidy terms: identify subsidy strike levels and year of award to model interactions with the fixed price.
• Balancing costs: clarify whether these are included or passed through.
• GoO handling: determine whether GoOs are bundled or retained as a separate revenue stream.

# Bottom line Fixed-price short-term PPAs can be economically sensible, but only when the temporal scope and contract mechanics align with the asset's production and risk exposures. Compare economic equivalence, not headline price, by reconciling capture rates, seasonal volume, negative-price exposure, subsidy interplay, balancing allocation, and GoO accounting.