AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt signals warning for Scottish politics, say academics

# What happened The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved a major electoral breakthrough in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, coming close to an outright majority. Academics interviewed by the Daily Record say that result sends a clear signal across Europe, including to Scotland: democratic parties and civil society cannot assume low current levels of far-right support will persist.

# Why this matters for Scotland Scotland's current levels of support for extreme-right actors remain much lower than in Saxony-Anhalt. Two-thirds of Scottish voters still back mainstream parties, and the AfD's vote in Saxony-Anhalt approached 44 percent. Yet academics argue that the AfD's trajectory shows how small, steady increases in support can become decisive once established politics begin to echo far-right talking points.

# What the academics said

• Eichhorn cautioned democratic actors against accommodating scapegoating narratives. He argued mainstream parties should address concrete problems and make positive change visible in people's lives rather than adopting anti-immigration rhetoric that can help far-right growth.

• Jennifer Lees-Marshment (University of Dundee) referenced YouGov polling showing immigration has risen as a concern in Scotland over four years, but noted economy and health remain more important issues. She said protests and threats to law and order can reflect a legitimate unmet demand in the political market that parties must respond to with policies that address the underlying causes.

# Practical implications for Scottish politics

# What to watch next

• Whether Scottish parties change messaging or policy proposals on immigration, health and the economy.
• Whether protests tied to anti-immigration sentiment increase and whether they translate into electoral support for fringe groups.
• How far-right actors in the UK and Scotland respond to the AfD victory on social media and in activism.

# Bottom line Germany is a political warning, not a direct mirror of Scottish politics. Scotland's mainstream parties still dominate votes, but academics call for concrete policy action on economic and health issues to prevent a slow build-up of far-right support that could be accelerated by political rhetoric that scapegoats vulnerable groups.