Oil prices are surging again but oil company stocks are down, what gives?

The useful part

WTI hit $100 today for the first time since May and remains up $3.44 at $99.49 but oil stocks aren't cheering. Notably, the strength in oil extends out the curve with January crude also up $2. Despite that, the XLE oil company ETF is down 1.1% in a reversal since the open.

How it works

• Now that could just be your garden variety profit taking but it's an prominent candle on a chart that's been one-way for awhile.
• The thinking could be that $100 oil is the red line for Trump and that he sees which way the wind is blowing on the midterms.
• He launched something of a Hail Mary yesterday with a promise of $5000 checks to Americans but he promised that on tariffs and DOGE too and didn't deliver.
• With oil too, it's not about just crude but product markets are now breaking and that's what hits consumers.
• Gasoline and (particularly) diesel are running well ahead of oil prices and refineries struggle to keep up.

What to take from it

Overall, it's not clear exactly what's driving the XLE move but 9 straight days of oil gains is an extremely rare occurence and it points to real supply problems so something will need to change. Gas Buddy today notes that 5 California fuel stations are selling diesel at $9.99 per gallon, which is a sign of genuine shortage. Perhaps he feels he can break the regime and secure his legacy but the flipside is loss of control of the Sentate and two years of endless Democrat-controlled hearings for his cabinet and administration (think Benghazi).

Details worth keeping

Exxon and Chevron are both negative on the day, mirroring in the XLE. he said that the war in Iran wouldn't end until after the midterms. That's hardly a winning message and gets worse as oil prices ratchet.