Financemagnates iconFinancemagnatesSep 10, 2026 ~1 min source read

The CFTC Says 'Gaming' Is Undefined: What Actually Separates a Prediction Market from a Sportsbook

How the Models Differ Three Tests Draw the Line The table gives the short version. The longer test starts with three mechanics: price formation, counterparty risk, and settlement.

The CFTC Says 'Gaming' Is Undefined: What Actually Separates a Prediction Market from a Sportsbook

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How the Models Differ Three Tests Draw the Line The table gives the short version.

The longer test starts with three mechanics: price formation, counterparty risk, and settlement.

A bookmaker publishes its own odds and moves them to balance its book and keep its margin inside the price.

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The useful part

How the Models Differ Three Tests Draw the Line The table gives the short version. The longer test starts with three mechanics: price formation, counterparty risk, and settlement. A bookmaker publishes its own odds and moves them to balance its book and keep its margin inside the price.

How it works

  • Kalshi's explainer says its contracts trade between one and 99 cents, settle at $1 or zero, and read as live probability: a question with a 40% chance of resolving yes should trade around 40 cents.
  • Sisun makes the same point in regulatory terms: preserve competitive price formation and venue neutrality.
  • At a sportsbook, the operator is the counterparty to every ticket, and your win is its loss.

Details worth keeping

On an event-contract exchange, price comes out of an order book.

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