Could Trump’s federal school choice program become as large as Title I or IDEA?

# What the new report shows

Children (AFC) produced an analysis that models how much money the federal Education Freedom Tax Credit could raise under different participation scenarios. The headline figure: if 20% of eligible taxpayers donate, the program could generate $37.6 billion a year. That number is presented as comparable to the combined size of Title I (targeting disadvantaged students) and IDEA (special education funding), the Department of Education's two largest K–12 streams.

The AFC also models lower participation paths. A 5% participation rate would yield about $9.4 billion annually. By contrast, Congressional scorekeepers have projected a substantially smaller figure, estimating the program could grow to about $4.4 billion by 2034.

# How the federal tax-credit scholarship program works

The federal program, created by last year's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, offers a dollar-for-dollar federal tax credit for donations to scholarship-granting organizations. Each eligible taxpayer may donate up to $1,700 and claim an equal reduction in federal tax liability. Scholarship organizations then award funds to students — for private school tuition, tutoring, books, or other eligible educational expenses — and can serve public, private, and homeschooled students.

Nearly three-quarters of taxpayers will be eligible to participate when the program launches, according to the AFC report.

# Why this program could grow larger than state counterparts

State tax-credit scholarship programs typically have limits that constrain growth: annual caps on how much individual scholarship organizations can raise, and state-level caps on credits. Many allow corporate donations, which can exhaust state caps before individual taxpayers participate.

# Distribution priorities matter for who benefits

# What remains uncertain

Projected totals hinge on multiple factors the report cannot fix. Key variables include taxpayer awareness of the new credit, willingness to donate, and the operational capacity of scholarship organizations to manage and distribute funds. Participation behavior historically seen in state programs is low (1%–3%), and rising to 5% or 20% would require substantially higher uptake. Congressional estimates point to a more modest growth path, illustrating disagreement among analyses.

# Practical implications for states and schools

States that opt in to the program and scholarship-granting organizations that scale quickly could see sizable new funding flows. How that money interacts with existing state and federal education funding, and whether it shifts enrollment or spending patterns between public and private sectors, will depend on implementation details and policy choices.

The program's structure — dollar-for-dollar tax credits, no federal cap on total credits, and a $1,700 donation limit per taxpayer — defines both its upside and the points of friction that will determine real-world impact.