A real-time forecasting framework for emerging infectious diseases affecting animal populations

The useful part

Firestone Infectious disease forecasting has become increasingly important in public health. However, forecasting tools for emergency animal diseases, particularly those offering real-time decision support when parameters governing disease dynamics are unknown, remain limited. We applied the framework to the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in Australia, generating forecasts at three timepoints across four regional clusters.

How it works

• Prediction targets included future daily case counts, outbreak size, peak timing and duration, and spatial distributions of future spread.
• We evaluated how well the forecasts predicted daily cases and the spatial distribution of case counts, using skill scores (a measure of probabilistic forecast accuracy) as a benchmark for future model...
• Spatial forecasts of broad, relative risk patterns were more robust than precise predictions of risk at the individual premises level or exact daily cases counts, supporting geographically targeted response...
• Overall, this framework supports real-time decision-making in livestock disease outbreaks when applied with appropriate consideration of uncertainty, and establishes a foundation for future refinements and...

Details worth keeping

Breed, Sharon Roche, Emily Sellens, Catherine Fraser, Kelly Wood, Chris P.