Plos iconPlosSep 10, 2026 ~1 min source read

The pitfalls of incidence-based time series regression for inferring the effects of weather on infectious diseases

Kramer, Matthieu Domenech de Cellès A central question in environmental epidemiology is how the weather affects infectious diseases. Here, we assess the reliability of incidence-based TSR through a controlled simulation study across four different climates and fifty scenarios representing different pathogens.

The pitfalls of incidence-based time series regression for inferring the effects of weather on infectious diseases

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Kramer, Matthieu Domenech de Cellès A central question in environmental epidemiology is how the weather affects infectious diseases.

For each scenario, we simulated 10 years of weekly incidence data using a transmission model that included real-world weather data on temperature and relative humidity.

Here, we assess the reliability of incidence-based TSR through a controlled simulation study across four different climates and fifty scenarios representing different pathogens.

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Kramer, Matthieu Domenech de Cellès A central question in environmental epidemiology is how the weather affects infectious diseases. Here, we assess the reliability of incidence-based TSR through a controlled simulation study across four different climates and fifty scenarios representing different pathogens. For each scenario, we simulated 10 years of weekly incidence data using a transmission model that included real-world weather data on temperature and relative humidity.

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  • We find that these models frequently fail to yield accurate and precise estimates of weather effects, even under favorable conditions such as no process noise and low observation noise (overdispersion).

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