Zambia warns 1.2 million people may face acute food insecurity as El Niño-linked drought approaches

Zambia's government warned that an El Niño-driven drought could push about 1.2 million people into acute food insecurity between October 2026 and March 2027. The figure was presented on Sept. 11 in Lusaka by Secretary to the Cabinet Patrick Kangwa as part of the country's latest seasonal rainfall outlook.

That geographic split matters for planning because Zambia's food production and water availability vary sharply by region. Authorities describe the forecast as an early warning roadmap to help prioritize responses where drought conditions are most likely.

Patrick Kangwa urged early preparations for a challenging season and instructed all provincial administrations to immediately implement multisectoral contingency plans. He emphasized that the contrasting rainfall patterns require targeted and proactive measures across climate-sensitive sectors.

Historical context and implications

Zambia faced a severe drought linked to El Niño during the 2023/2024 rainy season. The government reported that crop production was affected in 84 of the country's 116 districts, and about 1.6 million people required food assistance. That recent experience is the context for the current warning and explains the push for early, multisector responses.

The outlook presents two clear needs: differentiate responses by region and act early. Southern districts likely to see below-normal rainfall will need contingency actions focused on food and water security. Northern districts should prepare for heavier-than-normal rains in early season months and manage flooding or waterlogging risks where relevant.

The government has framed the forecast as an operational tool: provincial administrations must move quickly to translate the seasonal outlook into multisector contingency measures. For communities and local planners, the government's message is to treat the outlook as a prompt to start preparedness steps now.

The seasonal forecast signals heightened risk for parts of Zambia in the coming rainy season. The scale (1.2 million people) and the contrast between northern and southern rainfall patterns make targeted, time-sensitive responses necessary. Provincial and sectoral contingency plans are the immediate next step the central government has mandated.