An unusually strong El Niño has generated wind shear, dry air, and downward winds that have prevented hurricane formation in the Atlantic, producing a record-long stretch without a hurricane during the satellite era.
Record-strong wind shear, dry air (including African dust), and downward atmospheric motion — classic El Niño effects — are disrupting storm formation.
Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warm, but the atmosphere has warmed faster, reducing the ocean-to-air temperature contrast that fuels storms.
# What happened
The Atlantic hurricane season of 2026 has been unusually quiet. As of mid-September, no storm in the Atlantic had reached hurricane strength (sustained winds of at least 64 mph). Only five short-lived, relatively weak tropical storms formed. That stretch is the longest without a hurricane since reliable satellite records began.
# Why storms are failing to form
A very strong El Niño is changing atmospheric conditions across the tropics in ways that are hostile to Atlantic hurricanes. Three specific effects are central:
Together these factors have repeatedly dismantled nascent systems — tops getting sheared off, moisture removed, and vertical structure stunted.
# Sea surface temperatures vs. the atmosphere
# Regional exceptions and remaining risks
Mexico has not experienced the same extreme shear, and Gulf-based storms often occur later in the season. Forecasters warn that a single strong storm can still occur and cause severe damage — slow overall activity does not eliminate risk for coastal communities.
# The Pacific is the opposite story
El Niño tends to shift tropical activity into the eastern and central Pacific. This year those regions are seeing well-above-normal activity: many more named storms, longer-lived hurricanes, and impacts as far west as Hawaii. That contrast follows the expected El Niño pattern: suppressed Atlantic activity and enhanced Pacific activity.
# Outlook beyond 2026
Because El Niño is a temporary warming of the tropical Pacific, conditions are likely to revert toward neutral next year. The Atlantic ocean heat will likely remain elevated longer than the atmosphere, which means the balance could tip back toward a more active Atlantic season in 2027 if El Niño weakens.
# Bottom line
The Atlantic hurricane season is unusually quiet this year due to a strong El Niño, which disrupts storm formation over that ocean.
On Saturday, the Atlantic set a record for the longest start to a season without a hurricane since the satellite era began. Experts say El Nino creates conditions that prevent storms from developing, despite warm ocean waters.
The Atlantic is quiet — record quiet — this hurricane season thanks to an enormous El Nino that crushes storms before they get going. No Atlantic hurricanes have formed yet this year and none are likely to form for at least another week, even though this would normally be the peak of the season, according [...]
On Saturday, 2026 set a record for the longest a season has begun without a storm that has reached winds of 74 mph to qualify as a hurricane — at least in the satellite era, said Nick Novella, a meteorologist at the government's Weather Prediction Center.
TodayA slight chance of morning showers, otherwise mostly sunny, with a high near 87 and a low around 63.WednesdayMostly sunny, with a high near 84 and a low around 59. ThursdayMostly sunny, with a high near 83 and a low…
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