Forrester introduced an AI Disruption Model that evaluates 17 technology and service categories across nine factors such as AI substitutability, labor intensity, and switching costs. The model's core implication for tech vendors is straightforward: procurement and finance teams now apply an AI economic lens to buying decisions. A vendor's survival depends less on technical capability or roadmap items and more on whether its AI story can be underwritten by a buyer.
Forrester identifies three categories that receive an unambiguous green light.
- Infrastructure providers: cloud platforms, data centers, storage and related services. These remain central because production-scale AI creates heavy demand for compute, storage, and reliable infrastructure.
- Data and AI providers: models, platforms, governance tooling and related capabilities. Durable value is concentrating in data, model platforms, and operational tooling rather than surface features.
- Cybersecurity and identity: zero-trust, AI agent security and identity tools. Security and trust become more important as AI moves into production and agents act across systems.
Categories facing disruptive pressure
Reshaped categories: time but no immunity Business applications, governance and compliance, process automation, customer experience and marketing technology sit in a middle tier that Forrester calls reshaped. Embedded workflows, regulatory baggage and switching costs grant vendors a window to adapt. That window is not permanent. Vendors that treat AI as a cosmetic feature list rather than a repositioning of economics will still lose accounts, albeit more slowly than those with no AI story.
Four moves to take before the next renewal 1) Map your category honestly. Use Forrester's framework or an internal equivalent to identify where your product or service sits along the disruption spectrum. Optimism biases are common and costly. 2) Build an economic narrative, not a feature wrapper. Buyers distinguish between AI-marketed features and AI-native economic cases in a single sales cycle. Make the value measurable in dollars, headcount, throughput or risk reduction. 3) Invest beyond models. Allocate budget to data infrastructure, workflow integration, and trust/governance layers. Forrester's findings show durable value concentrating there rather than at the model layer alone. 4) Treat partnerships as product strategy when necessary. For vendors in highly exposed categories, an organic AI development timeline may miss the market window. Platform and partnership strategies can preserve account access and accelerate delivery.