Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider told CNBC that AI-related capital spending is driving roughly 50% of S&P 500 earnings growth. That lifts the index now, but also concentrates its fate in a handful of hyperscalers and AI suppliers.
Goldman Sachs estimates AI investment is responsible for about half of the S&P 500’s earnings growth, centering gains on a small group of buyers and suppliers.
NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Microsoft sit at the heart of the cycle: massive supplier revenue growth and large hyperscaler capex underpin current index profits.
The setup is earnings-driven with a compressed S&P 500 multiple (roughly 19x), but is vulnerable if hyperscalers cut discretionary AI capex.
Oops, something went wrong Skip to navigation Skip to main content Skip to right column Goldman Sachs Says AI Is Driving Half of S&P 500 Earnings Growth. SPY trades near highs with a compressed 19x P/E, but Snider warns half of S&P 500 earnings growth runs through one AI capex cycle. Goldman's positioning indicator is at its lowest since March, offering a selloff cushion, but September seasonality and the upcoming CPI report add near-term risk.
A falling multiple alongside a rising index is a healthier setup than the reverse, because the gains are backed by realized earnings rather than a re-rating. Concentration Inside the Bull Case If AI capex is funding half of index earnings growth, then a handful of hyperscalers deciding to keep spending is what keeps the average up. Light positioning cushions a selloff because less crowded exposure has less to unwind.
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