Bank of America says Marvell could be much bigger if AI demand continues

# America told investors

Bank of America reiterated a Buy rating on Marvell Technology and kept a $365 price target after meeting with CEO Matt Murphy and CFO Dan Durn. The firm's analysts, led by Vivek Arya, framed their conviction around two revenue pools tied to AI infrastructure: the chips that connect and move data within systems, and Marvell's custom processors.

Marvell's stock has run hard this year, rising about 160% over the past six months. Shares climbed nearly 12% through Sept. 11 even as some peers, including Nvidia, slid over the previous week.

# How BofA built its upside case

BofA separates the opportunity into two concrete buckets:

• Supporting chips (connectivity, memory management, data movers): BofA estimates the total market could reach $60 billion–$65 billion by 2030. At an assumed 40%–50% share, Marvell's annual revenue opportunity in this segment could reach about $30 billion. For contrast, Marvell's management outlook for 2028 is in the $3 billion–$4 billion-plus range.

• Custom processors: BofA models roughly $15 billion in potential sales by 2030.

Combining those figures gives a modeled addressable market of $40 billion–$45 billion by 2030. BofA calls these "modeled opportunities," not booked orders.

On earnings, BofA sees calendar-2028 earnings near $14 a share in the brighter scenario versus an $11 baseline. The note says each incremental $1 billion of sales could add about $0.30–$0.35 in earnings. The $365 target reflects 33 times the baseline earnings (excluding stock compensation).

# What investors should watch next

• Oct. 6 analyst/investor day: management could provide detail on product road maps, timelines, and the scale of the opportunities that BofA modeled.

• Customer execution: delivery and ramp timing at major hyperscalers, especially next-generation projects at Amazon and Microsoft, will determine when modeled revenue actually arrives.

# Key risks BofA flagged

• Execution gaps: the large revenue scenario depends on hyperscaler adoption and on those customers not delaying or reprioritizing chip projects.

• Competition: Broadcom is named as a strong incumbent in custom chips. Standard AI processors also compete for data-center spending.

• Margin and pricing pressure: winning design wins doesn't guarantee pricing power or the margins underlying BofA's earnings math.

• Valuation sensitivity: BofA's target assumes sustained premium multiples. Marvell's five-year non-GAAP P/E sits at about 42 times, so the 33-times baseline used in the target still depends on investors accepting elevated valuations.

# Bottom line