NakedCapitalism piece: Leaked poll claims most Mexicans back US military action — article finds that claim implausible

# What the story says The article examines a reported leaked poll attributed to the US State Department that allegedly finds a majority of Mexican respondents favor US action against drug cartels. Reported US actions in the poll include US indictments of Mexican officials accused of cartel ties and US strikes against alleged traffickers in the Caribbean and Pacific.

# Why the claim is questioned The author calls the poll finding "beyond risible," arguing it contradicts all other recent polling on Mexican public opinion. The piece treats the News Nation report of a leaked State Department poll with heavy skepticism and frames it as part of a wider political push by US officials pushing for a more interventionist approach.

# Rubio's public statements Senator Marco Rubio has publicly pushed the idea that Mexico controls less territory than it should and suggested US involvement might be needed. Rubio said Mexico has areas "not governed by the State" and described cartels as controlling extensive territories, which he linked to the need for more US action. The article notes Rubio reiterated claims about routine murders of candidates, judges, and journalists.

Journalist Ioan Grillo, based in Mexico, is quoted in the piece as calling Rubio's description misleading. Grillo says there are no areas of Mexico 100% controlled by narcos that the Mexican state cannot enter, though he acknowledges cartels act as a shadow power in many places. The article also points to concrete security improvement data: Mexico's homicide rate has roughly halved since Claudia Sheinbaum became president in October 2024, and July of the cited year was the least violent month in a decade.

# Regional contrast: Ecuador and militarized responses The piece contrasts Mexico with Ecuador. After Ecuador signed a US-style security agreement in January 2024 and allowed US troops and agencies greater access, its homicide rate reportedly surged to 51.3 per 100,000. The author uses Ecuador to argue that militarized responses aligned with US counter-narcotics models can coincide with rising violence, citing the example of Plan Colombia–style approaches.

# Institutional moves and alliances The article notes regional alignment moves: Colombia has joined the US-led Americas Counter Cartel Coalition (also referred to as ACCC or A3C) and other countries are being courted for cooperation. The piece suggests Washington may use incentives, like trade carrots, to pull partners into more militarized, cooperative efforts.

# Bottom line The author treats the leaked poll claim with skepticism, situates Rubio's rhetoric within an active push for more US-led regional security cooperation, and contrasts Mexico's recent security improvements with Ecuador's worsening violence after closer security alignment with the US. The article argues that more militarized interventions historically have coincided with more deaths while drug flows continued.