An analysis cited by CNN and reported by Conservative Daily News says households that rely on heating oil will likely pay about $2,300 this winter, driven by higher crude prices and constrained shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
NEADA projects oil-heated households will pay 31.3% more this winter — about $2,300 per household for mid-November to mid-March.
About 4% of U.S. households use heating oil, with roughly 75% of that oil consumed in Northeastern states, where average winter bills and electricity rates are higher.
Before the Iran war, Brent crude traded around $72 a barrel. After the conflict began and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz became limited, Brent rose above $100 a barrel. Higher crude leads directly to higher wholesale distillate prices, and heating oil is a distillate similar to diesel. EIA guidance noted heating oil often runs about 12 cents per gallon above on-highway diesel in certain quarters and that the two fuels tend to stay close over the season.
The Northeast will feel the largest effect because more homes there rely on heating oil and the region has longer winters. Electricity prices in the Northeast average about $0.24 per kilowatt-hour, compared with $0.16 in the Midwest and $0.15 in the South, increasing the total winter energy burden where households use mixed fuel sources.
NEADA has requested an additional $3 billion for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) to help households cover rising heating oil and electricity costs. LIHEAP received $4.1 billion for the current fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. The EIA has a formal Winter Fuels Outlook scheduled for Oct. 6 that will publish its household heating expenditures forecast for the 2026–2027 season.
Short-term outlook and what households should watch
Expect higher retail heating oil prices through at least the early winter months, following the EIA quarterly averages. Households dependent on oil should monitor local retail heating oil prices and eligibility windows for LIHEAP and other local assistance programs. The broader trajectory will depend on crude oil price movement, shipping conditions through key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, and any policy changes affecting energy assistance funding.
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