Plos iconPlosSep 15, 2026 ~1 min source read

R-package agentBayes: Likelihood-based statistical methods for agent-based models

Scott, Dagim Shiferaw Tadele, Otso Ovaskainen Statistically analysing interacting particle systems remains challenging because the governing equations are analytically intractable. Existing solutions include moment closure methods with pseudolikelihood-based frameworks, and likelihood-free frameworks based on extensive simulations, both relying on heuristic choices whose validity is difficult to predict.

R-package agentBayes: Likelihood-based statistical methods for agent-based models

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Scott, Dagim Shiferaw Tadele, Otso Ovaskainen Statistically analysing interacting particle systems remains challenging because the governing equations are analytically intractable.

As a resolution, we rigorously derive an asymptotically exact expression for the likelihood of agent-based models (ABMs) operating in continuous space and time that can be formulated as...

Existing solutions include moment closure methods with pseudolikelihood-based frameworks, and likelihood-free frameworks based on extensive simulations, both relying on heuristic choices whose validity is...

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The useful part

Scott, Dagim Shiferaw Tadele, Otso Ovaskainen Statistically analysing interacting particle systems remains challenging because the governing equations are analytically intractable. Existing solutions include moment closure methods with pseudolikelihood-based frameworks, and likelihood-free frameworks based on extensive simulations, both relying on heuristic choices whose validity is difficult to predict. As a resolution, we rigorously derive an asymptotically exact expression for the likelihood of agent-based models (ABMs) operating in continuous space and time that can be formulated as reactant–catalyst–product (RCP) models.

How it works

  • We utilize this expression to construct an asymptotically exact likelihood that applies to both spatial snapshot and time-series data.
  • We implement the likelihood expression and a Bayesian parameter estimation framework in the R-package agentBayes and demonstrate its utility in biological research and beyond with simulated case studies and...
  • We derive an expression for the conditional density of agents given information about the current and earlier distributions of neighbouring agents.

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by Niklas Moser, Dmitri Finkelshtein, Georgy Chargaziya, Stephen J.

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