Excerpt: The “Trump Effect” on Immigration Is Real

# What the excerpt argues The piece frames the change in U.S. migration patterns as policy-driven. It says the foreign-born population grew by 8.3 million during Biden's term, and attributes much of that growth to changes in border policy and enforcement that began when he took office.

# Concrete policy decisions it links to the surge The excerpt lists several Biden administration moves and public signals as contributing factors:

• Ending the Remain in Mexico policy.
• Dismantling Title 42 public-health expulsions.
• Terminating agreements with Central American countries that had limited transit through their territories.
• Choosing not to pressure Mexico to block migrant flow through its territory.
• Releasing most people encountered at the U.S. border rather than detaining and expediting removal.

It frames those choices as creating incentives: migrants who reached the U.S. border expected a high chance of being released into the country, so migration increased.

# Measured changes at the border The excerpt provides monthly border-encounter figures to show scale and timing:

• About 70,000 encounters per month at the end of 2020.
• About 200,000 encounters per month by the end of 2021.
• An average of over 300,000 encounters per month by the second half of 2023.

These figures are used to illustrate a rapid and sustained increase in encounters after the administration change.

# What the excerpt says about subsequent trends It notes that newer data show a sharp decline in the foreign-born population since January 2025. The excerpt does not provide the specific numbers for the decline in this passage, but points to a reversal in trend beginning in that month.

# How the piece addresses competing explanations The excerpt acknowledges alternative explanations that were advanced in real time: seasonal movement, pent-up demand after COVID lockdowns, or a broader international pattern affecting many Western countries. It rejects inevitability as the dominant explanation and instead emphasizes policy choices and enforcement decisions as primary drivers.

# Context and linked commentary

# Bottom line for readers The excerpt presents a short, causal narrative: specific policy reversals and enforcement choices under the Biden administration raised the incentive for migrants to attempt entry, which coincided with a large rise in border encounters and a substantial increase in the foreign-born population. It also reports newer data showing a downturn in the foreign-born population starting January 2025, suggesting the upward trend did not continue past that point.