Survey: data centre expansion outpaces planning for supply‑chain, climate and compound shocks

A global survey of 1,800 leaders across the data‑centre value chain, commissioned as part of the Economist Enterprise "Built for What's Next" research programme and sponsored by insurer FM, finds rapid capacity growth is outpacing resilience planning. More than nine in ten respondents reported a material infrastructure disruption in the last five years, yet resilience is often a lower priority than near‑term growth, efficiency and AI deployment.

The report projects global data‑centre capacity could nearly triple to about 220 gigawatts by 2030, requiring roughly $6.7 trillion of infrastructure investment according to the survey authors. Separate estimates cited in the report show variation: McKinsey estimated about $5.2 trillion tied to an expected 156 gigawatts of AI demand (with a $3.7T–$7.9T range depending on AI adoption), while JLL projected capacity nearly doubling to roughly 200 gigawatts by 2030 with up to $3 trillion in required investment.

Systemic risks and amplifier effects

Respondents identified several "amplifier risks" that can cascade through interconnected systems. Cyber‑attacks, grid constraints and extreme weather were named by more than 75% of stakeholder groups among the five risks most likely to have system‑wide effects. Two‑thirds of respondents ranked supply‑chain disruption among their top five systemic risks, but only about half said they were confident in their ability to manage that threat.

Structured cross‑organisational preparedness is limited. Only 10% of organisations reported maintaining structured crisis plans that include all critical external partners. About a quarter confined planning to internal teams and reach out to partners only after a disruption. Around one‑third have cross‑functional crisis teams in place, and roughly 30% run compound‑shock simulations that model cascading failures.

Independent reporting referenced in the survey highlights real delivery constraints. Sightline Climate reported 30%–50% of roughly 16 gigawatts planned for 2026 faced delays or cancellations due to power availability, equipment shortages and community opposition. Goldman Sachs Research estimated only 60% of next year's scheduled capacity would arrive on time, with that figure falling to 50% over the following two years.

Human capital emerged as a resilience constraint. Fewer than half of respondents maintain dedicated talent pipelines or training programmes. About 60% of data‑centre operators already report difficulty recruiting qualified staff. Separate industry reporting identifies shortages of electricians and engineers required to install and commission grid and facility equipment as a bottleneck for bringing new capacity online.

The research combined the 1,800‑person survey with scenario mapping, expert interviews and an advisory board. The report highlights where investment and board oversight exist — roughly two‑thirds of respondents report board‑level oversight of resilience and three‑quarters say they invest in targeted resilience initiatives — while also documenting remaining gaps in cross‑system planning and compound‑shock preparedness.

The data centre sector is expanding rapidly and attracting large capital flows, but the survey suggests that resilience measures addressing interconnected threats — supply‑chain fragility, grid limits and compound shocks — lag behind facility‑level investment priorities. Delivery delays, skilled‑labor shortages and limited external partner planning increase the risk that new capacity will be less resilient than planners expect.