Substantive AI discussion will be on the agenda when Trump and Xi meet — but informal 'Track Two' talks are already shaping options

Why AI will be on the leaders' agenda

The U.S.–China relationship is marked by fierce competition and deep mistrust over artificial intelligence. Recent public tensions include U.S. accusations that Chinese AI firms "distill" leading U.S. models and threats of sanctions, and Chinese criticism of U.S. chip export restrictions. Those disputes reduce the room for formal compromise, but they also make AI a pressing subject for any high‑level meeting between President Trump and President Xi.

What Track Two is and why it matters

Long‑standing institutions and networks are running the exchanges. The National Committee on U.S.-China Relations — active in bilateral exchanges since the 1970s — is one example cited by participants. Former diplomats and retired officials participate in many dialogues, bringing operational knowledge of what might be acceptable to governments.

Participants in Track Two forums cover a wide array of AI risks and governance questions: technical verification, intellectual property and model sharing, export controls, and safety guardrails for powerful systems. Because of the current climate of distrust, discussions also address how to avoid choke points or policies that could be perceived as using technology restrictions as leverage.

Track Two has produced usable policy inputs before

Limitations and the current political context

Track Two operates amid a highly charged political environment. Public accusations, sanction threats, and reciprocal complaints about technological restrictions sap trust and reduce incentives for compromise at the highest level. That means Track Two can lower the cost of early exploratory work, but it cannot, on its own, guarantee formal breakthroughs at a state visit.

Ahead of the leaders' meeting, expect Track Two outputs to focus on practical guardrails and confidence‑building measures that do not require immediate legislative or regulatory commitments. If the summit produces any movement on AI, it is likely to reflect ideas that have been vetted privately in these expert networks.

Formal U.S.–China talks on AI face a difficult political backdrop, but a parallel network of informal Track Two dialogues is active and producing proposals that could make formal negotiation more practical. These expert conversations offer realistic, incremental options aimed at reducing shared risks without asking either government to make immediate public concessions.