Staradvertiser iconStaradvertiserSep 18, 2026 ~6 min source read

Global economy is running out of wiggle room

After months of coping with energy and supply shocks, global buffers have shrunk and recent disruptions in the Middle East are pushing oil toward $110 a barrel, raising the risk of higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, and slower growth through 2027.

Global economy is running out of wiggle room

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Oil prices have surged to around $110 a barrel after pipeline shutdowns and Red Sea disruptions, reducing available exports and raising fuel and fertilizer costs.

Strategic stockpiles and temporary demand cuts have so far limited extremes, but OECD inventories are near multi-decade lows and alternative delivery routes are impaired.

Higher energy costs are likely to boost inflation regionally—Asia to 5.2% this year, Europe and the U.S. around 3.5–4%—and may force central banks to raise rates, slowing growth.

The useful part

18, 2026 Share on Facebook Share on X Share by email --> FINBARR O'REILLY / NEW YORK TIMES / APRIL 29 A farmer prepares to plant onions on a 10-acre cooperative farm in Dollow, Somalia, in April. Spiraling costs for imported energy and fertilizer threaten to reduce harvest yields and drive up food prices across Africa, hitting the region's poorest countries hardest. and Israeli attacks on Iran in February set off the largest disruption of worldwide energy flows in history.

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  • In Bangladesh, power outages caused hourslong work stoppages at factories.
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  • Yet despite jumps in oil prices, widening conflict in the Middle East, fuel shortages and inflation pressures, the feared crash never came and most economies managed to muddle through.
  • Houthi militia seized a strategic Red Sea island and a port city, which could further restrict shipping in the region.

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In the Philippines, fishermen docked their boats because they can't afford fuel. Storage levels among the 38 members that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have dropped to their lowest levels in decades, according to the U.S. An insightful discussion of ideas and viewpoints is encouraged, but comments must be civil and in good taste, with no personal attacks.

Example or evidence

  • Until now, some key moves to ease demand and bolster oil supplies helped blunt extreme price increases and acute shortages.
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  • 1 reason why crude oil prices and product prices have not been higher than they are is that China has cut its crude oil imports," said David L.
  • The world's largest importer of oil, China stopped stockpiling oil and relied on its own inventories, easing pressure on the global oil market at a critical moment.

Details worth keeping

LONDON >> For a while now, the global economy has been beating the odds. Wiggle room is narrowing at the same time the outlook is darkening. Look at what has happened in just the past few days.

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  • Fortune: "The result is an industrial machine that cannot stop and cannot slow down—but that, owing to the limits of demand, cannot keep going."
  • Fortune: "With interest rates on new Treasury bonds and notes at around 5% and medium-term nominal economic growth expected to be closer to 4%, the U.S. is entering a debt spiral."
  • Qualitymag: The global economy is stabilizing, but the fiscal support that cushioned successive shocks since 2020 is unlikely to play the same role in the year ahead, according to the World Economic Forum's Chief...
  • Westhawaiitoday: WASHINGTON — Global investors are balking at U.S. bonds. Talk of the dollar's dwindling power is getting louder. Foreign governments are hauling their gold out of American vaults.

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