Measurements from an Antarctic research voyage show that climate models can misjudge cloud phase and atmospheric temperature, causing models with too many low clouds to still underpredict heat reaching the ocean surface.
Reanalyses and a climate model agree on broad cloud patterns but overcount low clouds compared with ship observations.
All datasets underestimated downward longwave radiation because simulated clouds contained too much ice and the atmosphere was too cold.
Increasing aerosol concentrations in the model raised low-cloud frequency but had little effect on surface heat, so fixing cloud amount alone won’t close the radiation gap.
New ship-based observations suggest that errors in cloud composition and atmospheric temperature, not simply cloud abundance, may be driving the mismatch and limiting climate predictions. Shutterstock Researchers compare observations with leading climate models to identify errors and help improve future climate predictions. Some simulations put too many low clouds over the Southern Ocean, yet still underestimate how much heat reaches the surface below.
Assistant Professor Kazutoshi Sato notes, "Because observations over Antarctica remain sparse, numerical models still contain substantial uncertainties in their representation of the Antarctic atmosphere. When that happens with aerodynamic models, a test pilot's life is put at risk. Over the Southern Ocean, a region central to regulating Earth's climate, errors in either process can distort weather forecasts and projections of future warming.
The findings were published in Geophysical Research Letters. All three broadly reproduced cloud patterns over the Southern Ocean. Comparing real-world observations with climate models reveals key sources of uncertainty in Southern Ocean cloud simulations.
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