A repeat of Miami’s 1926 hurricane could cause more than $280 billion in damage

The useful part

State Library and Archive of Florida) In brief The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane caused destruction, plunging the city into a deep economic downturn. Miami's population and number of housing units have grown significantly since 1926, meaning that a similar storm could cause much more destruction. Climate change has heightened the risk, because rising sea levels, and increase in intense hurricanes, and wetter, slower-moving storms can lead to more damage than in the past.

How it works

• An Updated Methodology and Expanded Data Set, studied how increases in wealth and population have combined to increase the damages of historic hurricanes had they hit the U.S.
• Changes in building codes The research assumed all housing structures existing in 2023 were built to the same structural integrity that they were in 1926.
• A similar storm today could cause a lot more destruction.

What to take from it

To use a sports analogy, it's because the interaction of a storm surge with a city is a game of inches and thresholds. Modern hurricanes tend to be wetter because of climate change, because a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor. Four modeling groups have estimated that a repeat hurricane hitting Miami would cause hundreds of billions of dollars in damage, potentially exceeding the costs of Hurricanes Katrina and Harvey.

Example or evidence

• The catastrophic storm killed 220 in southeastern Florida, injured over 6,000, destroyed thousands of homes and buildings, and left tens of thousands of people homeless.
• Improvements in hurricane forecasts A 2024 study by the nonprofit, nonpartisan National Bureau of Economic Research, The Social Value of Hurricane Forecasts, found that recent advancements in hurricane...
• "The 1926 hurricane has become a benchmark in South Florida history, a dividing point in time, much like B.C.
• It has achieved a mystique of almost biblical proportions — akin to Noah's flood or the destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah." So wrote Miami historian Arva Moore Parks in her introduction to a 1986 reissue of...

Details worth keeping

A repeat of Miami's 1926 hurricane could cost over $280 billion. Reardon, "The Florida Hurricane & Disaster." Only two other U.S. The 1926 Great Miami Hurricane struck South Florida on September 18, 1926, with the eye of the large Category 4 hurricane passing over downtown Miami and Miami Beach.

Related coverage

• Insurancejournal: The Atlantic has been pretty quiet so far this season, but one system east of Bermuda could soon develop into a tropical storm, the National Hurricane Center said Thursday.
• Insurancebusinessmag: Centenary analysis of the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane shows exposure has grown to levels the industry has never had to absorb
• Khon2: Governor Josh Green announced that Hawaii faces $1 billion in costs following four major disasters in early 2026 and plans to utilize the state's rainy-day fund to supplement federal assistance.
• Spectrumlocalnews: "Energy. Impact. Action." Is the official theme for Climate Week NYC 2026.