Report: Up to 46% of wild-caught fish could be processed into feed for farmed fish and shrimp by 2040

# What the report examined

# Baseline and scenarios Today roughly 13.3% of wild-caught fish goes into fish feed. The researchers ran scenarios tied to which species dominate aquaculture expansion:

• If growth is steered toward low- or no-fish-feed species (for example shellfish, carp), demand for wild fish for feed would remain near current levels: about 13–17% of global catches.
• Under a middle scenario approximating current trends, where some high-value carnivorous species expand, the share rises to roughly 29–38%.
• If market-driven expansion concentrates heavily on carnivorous species that rely on fish-based feed (salmon, shrimp, sea bream, sea bass), demand could hit 34–46% by 2040.

Those upper estimates imply that nearly half of wild-caught fish could be ground into feed if aquaculture develops along a carnivore-heavy trajectory.

# Why the species mix matters

Tara Ganesh, a senior campaigner at Changing Markets Foundation, told Mongabay that the environmental impact depends strongly on which species are chosen to be farmed.

# FAO reaction and policy context The report was released on the eve of the FAO Committee on Fisheries (COFI) meeting (Sept. 7–11, 2026) in Rome, where governments discuss fisheries and aquaculture direction. The analysis references a 2023 FAO roadmap that listed an illustrative "at least 75% growth in global sustainable aquaculture by 2040" among options for meeting food security and climate goals. FAO officials clarified their stance in response to the report.

Manuel Barange, FAO assistant director-general and director of the fisheries and aquaculture division, said the 75% figure is not a formal FAO target but a discussion option. He pointed to an earlier FAO "Blue Transformation" roadmap where FAO's stated growth expectation was a 35% increase by 2030 compared with 2020. Barange noted the sector had already grown about 17% between 2020 and 2024.

# Where this leaves fisheries and aquaculture policy The numbers frame a policy choice: steering aquaculture toward species and feed systems that minimize reliance on wild fish, or allowing market forces to favor high-value carnivores that increase pressure on wild catches used for feed. The debate surfaced at COFI between proponents of expanded aquaculture and representatives of small-scale fishers who warned of negative impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems.

# Takeaway for readers If policymakers and industry prioritize high-value carnivorous aquaculture, a substantially larger fraction of wild-caught fish could be processed into feed by 2040. If growth is purposefully channeled toward species and feed alternatives that reduce wild fish inputs, demand could remain near current levels. The difference in outcomes is driven by species composition and policy choices, not by a single technical constraint.