Investinglive iconInvestingliveSep 21, 2026 ~1 min source read

St. Louis Fed’s Musalem: Interest rates likely need to rise further to tame inflation

Interest rates likely need to rise further to tame inflation that is both demand- and supply-driven. Labor market stable around full employment and not a source of inflation pressure.

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Interest rates likely need to rise further to tame inflation that is both demand- and supply-driven.

Labor market stable around full employment and not a source of inflation pressure.

Better for rate hikes to be "earlier and incremental" rather than "later and larger." Even when stripping out supply-related factors, inflation is still "too high" at up to 3%.

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The useful part

Interest rates likely need to rise further to tame inflation that is both demand- and supply-driven. Labor market stable around full employment and not a source of inflation pressure. Better for rate hikes to be "earlier and incremental" rather than "later and larger." Even when stripping out supply-related factors, inflation is still "too high" at up to 3%.

How it works

  • Business contacts say they are planning on price increases "closer to 3%." Analysis:
  • For traders, the important distinction is that Musalem does not view inflation as solely the result of temporary supply disruptions.

Details worth keeping

Commodity shock is more than just oil, includes base metals like copper. He believes inflation could remain well above the Fed's 2% target without additional policy restraint, and he favors acting sooner with smaller rate increases rather than waiting and potentially having to move more aggressively later. That keeps the possibility of further Fed tightening firmly on the table.

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