Transpac spot rates near Covid highs as carriers add capacity to capitalise on surge

# What happened

# How close to the Covid peaks

The current west coast level sits around 17.9% below its Covid-era record of $9,699 per 40ft set in February 2022. The east coast rate is about 11.2% below its peak of $12,683 reached in January 2022. Xeneta's chief analyst Peter Sand warned that rising bunker prices and higher fuel surcharges mean surpassing the pandemic peaks cannot be ruled out and that the east coast is the likeliest candidate for any new record.

# Why rates have climbed

• Geopolitical disruption: The market moved after the Hormuz crisis, which was a material inflection point referenced in the period when the surge began.
• Shippers moving cargo forward: Firms are accelerating shipments ahead of China's Golden Week, creating a short-term spike in demand.

# How carriers are responding

Carriers are adding capacity to take advantage of the tight market, particularly into the US East Coast. Xeneta reports offered capacity on the Far East–US East Coast trade was 6–7% higher in September than in August as carriers added sailings. The aim is to capture demand while the market is hot and before Golden Week shipments clear.

# What could change the picture

• Short-term: Xeneta expects another freight-rate push at the start of October as shippers rush cargo out of Asia ahead of Golden Week, after which rates could soften or growth could slow.
• Medium-term: Major carriers are expanding their fleets. Reported orderbooks: Maersk's orderbook equals about 35% of its existing fleet, MSC and CMA CGM about 39% each, and Cosco about 52%. If those newbuilds enter service and carriers prioritise market-share growth over tight utilisation, that could put downward pressure on utilisation and freight rates.

# What to watch next

• Spot-rate movements into the US East Coast for signs of a new record.

• Bunker-fuel price trends and resulting surcharges, which can push headline rates higher even if underlying capacity-demand balance eases.
• Cargo flow ahead of and immediately after China's Golden Week to assess whether the October push materialises and how quickly demand normalises.

# Bottom line