ECLAC: Extreme El Niño could shave at least 2% off Latin America and Caribbean GDP and push millions into poverty

# What the report says Caribbean (ECLAC) released a report titled "The Effects of El Nino in Latin America and the Caribbean and Recommendations for Addressing It." It warns that a high-intensity El Niño event could generate economic losses equal to at least 2 percent of the region's GDP and push an additional 4.8 million people into poverty.

# Which sectors are at risk ECLAC identifies energy, agriculture, fisheries and infrastructure as the sectors likely to face the largest impacts. The report highlights multiple, interacting channels:

• Energy: Higher temperatures would raise electricity demand for cooling in major cities such as Lima, São Paulo and Mexico City, while reduced water availability could constrain hydropower output, increasing the risk of supply disruptions and higher operating costs.
• Agriculture and fisheries: Production and yields in sensitive crops and coastal fisheries face direct exposure to altered rainfall and ocean conditions tied to El Niño, which can reduce incomes for rural households and fishing communities.
• Infrastructure: Floods, droughts and storm impacts tied to El Niño-related weather extremes threaten roads, ports and other transport and service infrastructure, increasing repair and maintenance costs.

# Timing and magnitude of impacts ECLAC says the largest economic losses would likely occur in the first year of a high-intensity El Niño, although knock-on effects could persist and depress household incomes further into the decade. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects there is more than a 90 percent chance that El Niño will reach very strong intensity during boreal autumn and winter 2026–27 and places the chance of a historic "Super El Niño" at 69 percent.

For October–December 2026, the report notes a 60 percent probability of below-normal rainfall in parts of the region and states that 31.1 percent of the region's territory is under high alert.

# Social consequences Declining household incomes and disrupted livelihoods could raise poverty levels. ECLAC's quantitative estimate in the report is an additional 4.8 million people pushed into poverty under a high-intensity event scenario.

# Recommended government actions ECLAC lists concrete policy responses to reduce risks and losses:

• Strengthen early-warning systems so authorities and communities can act ahead of extreme weather.
• Protect and retrofit critical infrastructure to withstand extreme rainfall, drought and higher temperatures.
• Improve water management to cope with reduced availability and competing demands, including for cooling and agriculture.
• Diversify energy sources to reduce reliance on hydropower where reservoirs could be depleted.

• Deepen regional cooperation on information-sharing and coordinated responses to cross-border impacts.

# Practical outlook If NOAA's projected very strong to historic El Niño materializes, governments can expect concentrated macroeconomic losses in the near term and longer-term social effects unless they mobilize targeted interventions. The report frames those interventions as a combination of preparedness (early warning, infrastructure protection), resilience (water and energy planning, insurance) and regional coordination.