Crude is now trading two competing narratives: physical supply is improving, while the diplomatic path remains uncertain and heavily conditional. Brent holding near $99 despite the Saudi restart suggests the market still prices a meaningful risk premium until Hormuz flows normalise more broadly.
Crude is now trading two competing narratives: physical supply is improving, while the diplomatic path remains uncertain and heavily conditional.
Brent holding near $99 despite the Saudi restart suggests the market still prices a meaningful risk premium until Hormuz flows normalise more broadly.
Refined products look like the tighter corner of the market, with diesel at record highs in the US and Europe, so any sustained easing of product shortages could matter more for prices than crude headlines...
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Crude is now trading two competing narratives: physical supply is improving, while the diplomatic path remains uncertain and heavily conditional. Brent holding near $99 despite the Saudi restart suggests the market still prices a meaningful risk premium until Hormuz flows normalise more broadly. Refined products look like the tighter corner of the market, with diesel at record highs in the US and Europe, so any sustained easing of product shortages could matter more for prices than crude headlines alone.
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