Sluggish pay growth expected to continue into 2027

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UK employers are expected to keep pay awards subdued into 2027, according to HR data and insights provider Brightmine.

The median basic pay award in the three months to the end of August stood at 3%, marking the second consecutive rolling quarter at this level.

The most common basic pay award was also 3%, accounting for almost a third (32%) of settlements.

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UK employers are expected to keep pay awards subdued into 2027, according to HR data and insights provider Brightmine. The median basic pay award in the three months to the end of August stood at 3%, marking the second consecutive rolling quarter at this level. The most common basic pay award was also 3%, accounting for almost a third (32%) of settlements.

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Brightmine 2027 Pay Forecast research forecasts a continuation of this trajectory across the next 12 months, with a median 3% pay award in the year to 31 August 2027.
Awards are expected to remain tightly clustered, with 71% of predicted pay awards falling between 3% and 4%.
Affordability shaping 2027 pay and workforce decisions There are competing financial pressures facing organisations as they consider pay budgets for the year ahead.
Stuart Gentle Publisher at Onrec 23 Sep 2026 | Research & Labour Market Sluggish pay growth expected to continue into 2027 Median basic pay awards dipped to 3% in the three months to August, as employers...
The greatest of these downward pressures is affordability, cited by two-thirds (66%) of organisations.

Details worth keeping

More than a third (37%) say increased employer Nat...

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