Brazil’s October election could determine the Amazon’s near-term future

The useful part

If elected, the 45-year-old senator is widely expected to govern as his father did, which is sparking fears for the future of the Amazon rainforest. During Jair Bolsonaro's presidency between 2019 and 2023, deforestation in the Amazon soared, reaching a 15-year-high in 2021. If anything, the signs are that it's going to be far worse," says Claudio Angelo, international policy coordinator at Brazil's Climate Observatory.

How it works

• Given this record, and his close ties to his father – and to Donald Trump – experts are concerned that his election would be followed by an increase in deforestation rates.
• Read more Stark photos show quest for profit cutting swathes through the Amazon Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign also pledges zero illegal deforestation by 2029.
• Spectacular feathered dinosaur fossil shows bird-like adaptations The best new science-fiction books of October 2026 Our food system is vulnerable to El Niño, warns UK climate minister Explainer:
• With the younger Bolsonaro currently embroiled in a corruption scandal, the environment has received relatively little attention during campaigning "But for the rest of the world, the major question here is...
• Amazon's 4.2 million square kilometres of rainforest regulate global climate patterns and hold huge stocks of carbon – roles that are increasingly important as climate change accelerates.

What to take from it

the former president encouraged a wave of land-grabbing and illegal mining with his pro-development rhetoric and gutted environmental agencies so they were powerless to stop invaders. Flávio is also likely to face fewer political constraints than his father, not least because he has said he would appoint five new supreme court judges. "The Amazon is a key element in whether climate change escapes human control, which is very close to happening," says Fearnside.

Example or evidence

• A spokesperson for Lula's campaign told New Scientist that the president's current term was about rebuilding environmental institutions after Jair Bolsonaro's presidency of "total neglect and denialism".
• "It's still hard to believe what happened," says Izabella Teixeira, Brazil's environment minister between 2010 and 2016, initially under the presidency of Lula and later under the presidency of Dilma Rousseff.
• Since returning to office in 2023, Lula has restored the power of environmental agencies, halving Amazon deforestation to 5731 square kilometres between August 2024 and July 2025.

Details worth keeping

Former president Jair Bolsonaro, under house arrest, cannot run. "This is a do-or-die moment for the Amazon, really." Advertisement Read more Super El Niño set to cause 'terribly dangerous' drought in the Amazon Flávio Bolsonaro is looking to unseat President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula. Read more Deforestation could trigger Amazon tipping point in the 2030s In a recent TV interview, Flávio Bolsonaro refused to say that climate change existed, instead referring to "extreme climate events" and "cyclical periods".

Related coverage

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