Short-Haul Freight Surges While Long-Haul Weakens as Intermodal Gains

# What happened SONAR data show a clear shift in truckload demand toward short-haul moves. The SONAR Local Truckload Volume Index (CSTVI), which tracks loads moving under 100 miles, is up 35% year-to-date and 11% since September 2024. At the same time, long-haul truckload volumes for loads over 800 miles (LSTVI) have fallen 15% over two years and are down 3% year-to-date.

# Why it's moving that way Two concurrent forces are compressing average length of haul:

• Shippers are converting long-haul over-the-road freight to intermodal where service and lanes allow. Intermodal provides cost savings in contract rates and fuel that make it attractive for eligible long-haul flows.
• Distribution networks continue to shrink and densify, shortening many moves as companies pursue faster, just-in-time replenishment strategies.

Each load converted to intermodal generates a drayage leg at origin and destination. Those short drayage moves are counted in the local truckload index, mechanically lifting CSTVI even if total truckload demand remains soft.

Rail activity supports the pattern. The SONAR Outbound Rail Index is up 6% over the past year, illustrating that rail-carried containers are replacing some long-haul truck miles. That substitution has tightened drayage capacity in several markets.

# Carrier market power and tender rejections

# Key operational effects to watch

• Drayage capacity pressure. More intermodal activity has tightened drayage capacity in key gateway and ramp markets. Tight drayage can create local rate spikes and service variability.

• Short-turn utilization. Carriers oriented to short-haul work may see higher utilization and different driver scheduling needs compared with long-haul fleets.

# What could reverse the trend Intermodal durability depends on railroads maintaining service levels. If intermodal service degrades, some freight could shift back to long-haul truckload and partially unwind the current divergence in lengths of haul.

# Practical implications by role Shippers: Re-evaluate lanes for intermodal viability, account for drayage capacity and potential local congestion, and factor tender rejection behavior into carrier sourcing.

# Bottom line Short-haul truckload is the most resilient segment right now because of a mix of intermodal conversions and shrinking distribution footprints. Long-haul volumes are weaker, rail is growing modestly, and tender rejection rates keep carriers in a position to choose loads as peak approaches. Monitor intermodal service and drayage capacity closely—those are the triggers that will determine whether the trend holds or partially reverses.