Investinglive iconInvestingliveSep 24, 2026 ~1 min source read

Sticky core inflation pushes RBA towards its highest cash rate since 2011

With 33 of 34 economists expecting a hike, Tuesday's move is close to fully priced. If the bank signals it is open to hiking again, AUD could get a boost and front-end yields could rise, as markets price in a November move.

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Useful takeaways from this story.

With 33 of 34 economists expecting a hike, Tuesday's move is close to fully priced.

Jobs data yesterday won't stand in the way of nrext week's hike: AUD little changed:

If the bank signals it is open to hiking again, AUD could get a boost and front-end yields could rise, as markets price in a November move.

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The useful part

With 33 of 34 economists expecting a hike, Tuesday's move is close to fully priced. If the bank signals it is open to hiking again, AUD could get a boost and front-end yields could rise, as markets price in a November move. A clear "one and done" message could instead take some of the tightening premium out of the currency.

How it works

  • Jobs data yesterday won't stand in the way of nrext week's hike: AUD little changed:
  • Australia's policy rate would also rise further above most of its G10 peers, which supports AUD on the crosses, especially AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD.
  • Australia jobless rate hits 4.6%, highest since 2021, participation outpaces jobs beat --- A month ago economists expected the RBA to hold in September.
  • Now almost all of them expect a hike to 4.60% on Tuesday, with the argument moving to whether this is the peak or just a stop on the way.

Details worth keeping

Bullock's press conference than to the decision itself.

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