North Texas suburbs become battleground as early voting nears in Texas Senate race

Texas' largest media market. That makes voters in the North Texas suburbs — particularly Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties — a focal point in the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico as early voting approaches.

A recent Texas Tribune report quoted roughly a dozen former local Republican leaders in the region who said they would either vote for Talarico for the first time or leave the Senate race blank instead of supporting Paxton. One named former official, Southlake Mayor John Huffman, told NBC 5 he could not move past concerns about Paxton's character, citing a high-profile divorce and past corruption allegations.

How demographics and business shifts change the math

Braddock also said business and industry groups are circulating polling that shows Democrats outperforming Republicans in suburban areas. Collin County, in particular, has seen major corporate relocations that brought new and more diverse workers, changing local voter makeup year over year.

Paxton's campaign has emphasized defending the suburbs, targeting Republican-leaning women with messaging framed around fighting large corporate interests. A campaign spokesperson said "suburban moms want someone who will actually fight the people putting their kids in harm's way: Big Food, Big Pharma, and Big Tech."

Outside groups are spending heavily in Texas to influence the Senate race. Reports say the total outside spending in the state tops $100 million. A wave of mailers supporting Paxton and attacking Talarico were paid for by the No Going Back PAC, a new group with funding reportedly tied to former President Trump's organization, according to The New York Times.

Local election logistics and voter access

Separately, a proposal in Tarrant County to reduce the number of polling locations has drawn protests. Critics said fewer sites could create confusion during the November midterm elections. That dispute is unfolding as the suburban vote becomes more contested.

• Public defections by former Republican leaders in North Texas and whether those statements grow.
• Suburban turnout patterns in Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties compared with recent cycles.

• Final decisions by local election officials on polling location plans in rapidly growing counties.

Suburban voters in North Texas are shaping up as a crucial variable in the Texas Senate race. Changes in population, corporate relocations and visible breaks with the local Republican establishment have raised the stakes. With early voting less than a month away, both campaigns and outside groups are focusing resources and messaging on these counties.