Scientificamerican iconScientificamericanSep 24, 2026 ~5 min source read

Why diesel is costing much more than gasoline: chemistry plus tight global supply

Diesel prices in the U.S. have nearly doubled over the past year. The rise reflects both the chemistry of diesel production and global supply shocks that reduce how much diesel refiners can deliver.

Diesel fuel prices are rising—chemistry can help explain why

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Global factors—reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz, strikes on Russian refineries after the Ukraine war, and tight global diesel markets—are keeping diesel supply constrained.

# What's happening to diesel prices Diesel in the U.S. has climbed sharply. As of late September 2026 the American Automobile Association reported an average diesel price around $6.5141 per gallon, near the historic high. Over the past 12 months gasoline rose about 40 percent, while diesel nearly doubled. That divergence is explained by two linked forces: the chemistry of diesel and global supply disruptions.

# Chemistry: why diesel costs more to make Gasoline and diesel both start as crude oil, but the molecules that make diesel are longer chains of hydrocarbons. Longer chains store more energy per molecule, which is why diesel delivers better fuel economy and why heavy vehicles rely on it.

Removing metals and sulfur uses severe processing: high pressure, high temperature treatments that chemists describe as a sledgehammer process. The treatments break apart and strip contaminants, but they also fracture some useful hydrocarbon chains. The result: a larger share of a barrel is consumed by the cleanup process and less becomes finished diesel. Lower diesel yield per barrel raises the cost of producing each gallon.

# Refining capacity and market mechanics

# Why price rises persist and who feels them Diesel demand is relatively inelastic: farmers will run combines, and trucks must deliver goods regardless of price. Consumers cut discretionary gasoline trips when prices climb, but freight and agricultural operations cannot do the same. That means higher diesel prices are more likely to be absorbed into freight rates and then passed on to consumers.

Economists point out that even potential policy moves—such as reports of a possible 90-day U.S. export ban—would probably have limited effect because world diesel supplies are tight. Large logistics firms may try to absorb some costs short term, but those costs typically flow through to end prices for goods.

# Short-term outlook If conflicts in Iran and Ukraine continue to disrupt flows and refining activity, expect elevated diesel prices to persist. With refining yields limited by chemistry and global supply constrained by geopolitical events, downward pressure on pump prices will require either increased refinery output for diesel, reductions in demand, or easing of the supply disruptions.

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