Mpamag iconMpamagSep 25, 2026 ~3 min source read

Zillow: Spring spike in engaged shoppers didn’t translate into matching closings

Zillow data shows a large year-over-year rise in high-intent shopper activity during spring, but sales rose only modestly — suggesting substantial pent-up demand waiting for more favorable conditions.

The spring buying surge that never quite translated to closings

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Engaged shoppers rose 21% year over year to 4.8 per listing in Q2, while existing-home sales increased just 4.5%.

Demand concentration varies by region and price tier: some Northeastern metros and luxury listings saw much higher shopper-to-listing ratios than Sun Belt and entry-level markets.

# What Zillow found this spring

# Engagement versus actual sales Despite heavier engagement, existing-home sales climbed only 4.5% over the same period. Inventory was higher year over year, so the imbalance isn't explained by tighter supply. Instead, many buyers appear ready to move but stalled before contract and closing. Zillow frames this as a pool of pent-up demand that needs better conditions to convert.

# Rates and timing mattered

# Where competition was fiercest Shopper-to-listing ratios varied sharply across metros. Northeastern markets with chronically tight inventory showed the most pressure: Buffalo led major metros with 10.5 engaged shoppers per listing, followed by Providence (9.5), Hartford (8.5), San Francisco (7.6), and Cleveland (7.3). In those markets, buyers face compressed timelines and limited negotiating leverage.

The Sun Belt showed the opposite pattern. New construction increased choices and eased pressure on buyers. Houston recorded just 2.2 engaged shoppers per listing, the lowest among major metros, with Miami at 2.4 and San Antonio at 2.9. Brokers operating in these regions should expect more room for buyer negotiation.

# The luxury and size divide Engagement concentrated at the top of local markets. Luxury listings — the top 5% of regional value — attracted a median eight engaged shoppers per listing, nearly three times the 2.7 seen for entry-level homes in the 5th–35th percentile. Engagement growth for luxury listings rose 25.7% year over year versus 8.6% for the bottom tier.

Home size showed a similar split: properties with four or more bedrooms averaged 6.6 engaged shoppers, compared with 3.5 for two-bedroom homes. For brokers, these patterns indicate where demand is watching closely and where converting interest will require favorable timing or pricing.

# Practical implications for brokers and lenders

  • Markets with very high shopper-to-listing ratios require fast action and pre-listing positioning to win offers.
  • In metros with low shopper density, buyers have more negotiating leverage and can shop listings longer.
  • Rising rates can quickly erode a window of convertibility: engagement alone is not a reliable predictor of near-term closings if mortgage affordability weakens.

More context around this story.

Selling This Fall by the Numbers

Selling This Fall by the Numbers

Thinking of selling your home this Fall? Two solid months of home buying activity are still ahead of us... but the countdown is on... The graph above shows the number of contracts signed per month in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, averaged over the past four years. September and October might actually surprise you

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