Packers Week 3: Statistical breakdown of Green Bay’s 35-14 loss to the Falcons

# Quick summary Falcons 35-14. The box-score story in the numbers: Green Bay abandoned the run in favor of a heavy passing approach, got mixed results through the air, and the defense failed to generate consistent pressure or tackle cleanly against Atlanta's attack.

# Offense: pass-heavy but inefficient running game Green Bay finished the game with an 85.7% pass rate, which the piece notes is 30.27% above the NFL average. That passing tilt was present early: 79.2% pass rate in the first half and 80% in the first quarter.

• Jordan Love's average time to throw in the game was 2.46 seconds, slightly longer than his season mark of 2.35 seconds coming into the game.

• Green Bay used 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) on 81% of snaps, including 66.7% of first-half snaps. For context, Week 1 was 47.8% and Week 2 was 56% in 11 personnel.
• EPA per play by grouping: 11 personnel +0.13 (and +0.06 in the first half). 12 personnel -0.55. 13 personnel -1.24. The Packers were most productive out of 11.

• The Packers ran zone-family plays on 33.3% of running plays but still failed to generate movement on zone. Success came when they used pulling, gap-based blocking to drive into linebackers rather than true zone techniques.
• The only positive EPA in the run game came on a single B-gap attempt.

• J. Michael Sturdivant: 3 catches for 22 yards and +1.11 EPA per reception. Two slants were responsible for +2.23 EPA per reception on those plays, showing an ability on slant routes.
• Matthew Golden: 100-yard day and first regular-season touchdown. He posted +2.12 EPA per reception, the highest among Packers WRs in the game, and drew a defensive pass interference.

# Defense: zone-heavy, blitzing often but not finishing

• Packers played man on 12% of snaps and zone on 88%.
• Zone breakdown: Cover 3 45%, Cover 4 27%, Cover 2 20%, Cover 6 8%.
• Defensive coordinator Joe Gannon blitzed at a 32% rate in the game, well above his pre-Packers reputation, yet the defense only recorded pressure on 20% of Falcons dropbacks.

• Falcons QB had a quick release (average 2.15 seconds to throw), reducing the window for the Packers' pass rush.
• Edge rusher Lukas Van Ness produced a low pressure rate (5%) in part because Atlanta ran the ball a lot (62.1% run rate) and the QB's quick throws. Van Ness's average time to pressure when he did get there was 2.34 seconds, suggesting he was close to making more plays if the quarterback held the ball longer.

• Packers recorded a missed tackle rate of 13.33%, slightly above the NFL average by 0.06. Several long gains by Bijan Robinson were described as the result of poor tackling angles and shed tackles rather than one-off busts.
• The Falcons showed success against light, heavy, and even boxes, with positive EPA per play in each situation (+0.22, +0.23, +0.38 respectively), indicating they were able to push Green Bay's front consistently.

# Bottom line Green Bay's game plan skewed heavily toward passing and three-WR sets, which produced the team's only positive EPA by grouping. The run game failed to contribute, and the defense could not generate consistent pressure or wrap up tackles on key runs and short passes, allowing Atlanta to sustain drives and pile up yards.