Dividend forecast for NAB shares through FY28: modest growth in payouts

# What this forecast covers

# Snapshot of forecasts

• FY26 dividend per share (projected): $1.70.
• FY27 dividend per share (projected): $1.705.
• FY28 dividend per share (projected): $1.73.

# Recent business performance that underpins the outlook NAB's financial year ends in September. For the three months to 30 June 2026 (FY26 Q3):

• Statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) was $1.81 billion, about 32% higher versus the FY26 first-half quarterly average.
• Revenue grew 2% against the FY26 first-half quarterly average and 5% year-over-year.
• Cash earnings were $1.83 billion, up 4% year-over-year and 2% versus the FY26 first-half quarterly average.
• Credit impairment charges totalled $299 million, which included $119 million of collective provision charges. Those collective provisions were driven by increased business lending volume and a deterioration in asset quality within the performing book.

These results indicate modest growth in revenue and earnings but also show pressure on asset quality in business lending. That pressure is flagged as a variable to watch amid higher interest rates and geopolitical tensions.

# How the dividend path looks The forecast implies stability in FY26 and FY27 with only a fractional increase projected for FY27. The first noticeable increase arrives in FY28. If earnings remain stable or improve slightly and capital requirements hold steady, the projected small rise to $1.73 per share would raise the effective yield for income-minded investors.

# Risks and factors that could change the outcome

• Credit trends: The $119 million collective provision in Q3 points to weakening performing-book quality for business lending. If impairments rise further, dividend capacity could be constrained.
• Macro and rates: Higher interest rates affect borrowers and could create stress that increases provisions or reduces lending growth.
• Geopolitical events: The article mentions potential stress related to the Middle East conflict as an area to monitor.

# Practical takeaway for investors If you prioritise dividend income, the projections show NAB maintaining payouts in the near term with a small increase by FY28. The bank's earnings and cash generation appear resilient so far, but watch credit impairment trends in business lending and any changes to capital or regulatory expectations that could affect payouts.

# Next steps for a reader

• Track NAB's upcoming quarterly and full-year results for changes to NPAT, cash earnings, and impairment charges.

• Consider how a roughly flat-to-slightly-rising dividend matches your income needs and risk tolerance, given asset-quality signals.