Van Tender Rejections Rise to 14% as Capacity Remains Fragile

# What happened Index climbed to about 14% and is holding near a secondary peak similar to late‑summer levels. Van freight is the primary driver of that increase. Van moves represent roughly 60%–70% of all tendered freight in the U.S., so higher rejection rates in van lanes have a larger systemic effect than similar moves in reefer or flatbed modes.

# Why demand isn't the main explanation Total tender volumes rose slightly after Labor Day but remain below April levels, so the story is not a broad surge in demand. Zach Strickland's SONAR commentary frames the situation as market fragility and sensitivity: capacity is not reliably available the way it was during late‑COVID stabilization periods. Carriers are reacting to a tighter capacity backdrop, creating higher rejection rates without substantial increases in overall tender volume.

# Mode differences and what they mean Refrigerated rejections are running around 20% and are being supported by the harvest season, which should keep reefer rejection rates elevated for several months. Flatbed rejections are near 19% but flatbed comprises less than 10% of total freight volume, so its volatility has less systemic effect. Van rejections have shown the most sustained upward pressure and matter most because of van's dominant share of volume.

# Geography: where the tightness is concentrated The Midwest is the center of the current tightness. SONAR highlights markets including Columbus and Joliet, with Joliet singled out because of its role as a major rail hub. Several East Coast markets such as Allentown and Elizabeth, New Jersey were also flagged as points to watch. These localized pressures can ripple through networks and maintain higher rejection rates even without broad national demand gains.

# Spot rates and timing

# Fuel and passthrough limits Diesel prices are contributing to upward pressure on spot rates. Strickland cautioned that carriers can only pass through diesel costs when market conditions permit: "You can't pass along that diesel cost without a market that will allow it." For now, the fragile capacity backdrop is providing some ability for carriers to seek higher rates, especially in van lanes.

# Practical implications for shippers and carriers Shippers that source capacity on a week‑to‑week basis may face exposure to sudden spot‑rate moves if capacity tightens further. Carriers and brokers should watch Midwest hubs and van tender rejection trends closely, as small changes there can have outsized effects on national availability and pricing.

# What to watch next Monitor the national Tender Rejection Index and the SONAR Tender Volume Index for divergence. Track Midwest market rejection rates, especially Joliet and Columbus. Watch reefer rejections through the harvest window and spot rate maps for regional softening or tightening ahead of October's seasonal shift.