Musk says China can close AI chip gap in 2–3 years; cites lithography and manufacturing gains

The useful part

Elon Musk predicts China will resolve AI chip shortage in 2-3 years, viewability ~27-35%). 26, 2026 Elon Musk thinks China's AI chip problem has an expiration date, and it's sooner than most analysts expected. They arrived shortly before a reported summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, adding a layer of diplomatic significance to what might otherwise read as a straightforward technology forecast.

How it works

• Musk's case for Chinese AI efficiency Musk didn't just predict China would catch up.
• CCTV and CMG are state-affiliated outlets, and Musk's willingness to appear on them signals a desire to maintain and deepen his business relationships in the country.
• For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
• --> Elon Musk predicts China will resolve AI chip shortage in 2-3 years The Tesla CEO praised Chinese AI models as having unmatched efficiency per unit of compute, calling them 'generally outstanding' by...
• In an interview with China Media Group aired on September 23, the Tesla CEO predicted that China would close its gap in AI computing capabilities within two to three years, citing advances in lithography...

What to take from it

He went further, describing Chinese AI large models as "generally outstanding" and arguing they deliver superior performance per unit of compute compared to anything else globally. Advertisement Musk pointed to China's structural advantages in energy generation and manufacturing as key factors that could accelerate the timeline. Musk's two-to-three-year window is, by comparison, aggressively optimistic.

Example or evidence

• The restrictions targeted high-end AI chips, the kind manufactured by companies like Nvidia, and were designed to slow Beijing's progress in artificial intelligence and military applications.
• Domestic lithography improvements, the technology used to etch circuits onto silicon wafers, could eventually give China a path to manufacturing competitive chips without relying on Western supply chains.
• Notable Chinese companies, such as Huawei and SMIC, have intensified their focus on domestic lithography development and the creation of custom-designed application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs).
• Geopolitical chess and AI safety Musk used the interview to push for greater collaboration on AI safety regulations and reduced trade barriers between the US and China.

Details worth keeping

The timing of Musk's comments is worth noting. AI, tech, and the markets they move-in one daily briefing. Join 34,000+ readers across crypto, finance, and policy.

Related coverage

• 3dnews: С 2019 года поставки литографического оборудования ASML со сверхжёстким ультрафиолетовым излучением (EUV) в Китай запрещены, и по официальным каналам ни одной такой системы в страну поставлено не было.
• Investing: Musk says Colossus 2 data center plans to ramp up Nvidia AI chips by year-end
• Newatlas: Chinese tech giant Huawei has made a bold move in the AI "race," announcing that its next-generation AI chip to rival current Nvidia models will be released as early as the start of 2027.
• Pandaily: DeepSeek CEO Liang Wenfeng told investors that training next models on Huawei and domestic chips is a top priority, with Huawei training-chip deliveries eyed for Q4 2026 to Q1 2027.
• Runet: Бурный рост искусственного интеллекта привел к дефициту не только чипов и памяти, но и оборудования для их производства.