Half Yours, last year's Cups double winner, runs in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington with his trainer Tony McEvoy looking for clarity on the colt's spring path. McEvoy wants the Turnbull to show whether Half Yours can legitimately be aimed at the Cox Plate or whether connections should focus on other targets such as a Caulfield Cup defence.
McEvoy described the race as "the fork in the road" for Half Yours. If the horse can match it with the top Cox Plate betting names over 2000m, McEvoy says he will commit to the Cox Plate. The alternative is to pursue the $6 million Caulfield Cup (2400m), which Half Yours won last year and for which he has been allocated 57.5kg this season.
Half Yours has had one run this campaign: a sixth placing in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes over 1600m on September 12. He recorded the fastest sectionals in that race, finished 4.65 lengths behind winner Sheza Alibi, and was about three-quarters of a length behind Sir Delius, who is also expected to run in the Turnbull. McEvoy has kept Half Yours fresh with that single mile run to bring him sharp into the Turnbull and believes the horse is ready to tick the 2000m box at this level.
Delius, Birdman and Aeliana — the three top-priced Cox Plate hopes mentioned in betting markets. Birdman and Sir Delius have produced strong recent performances: Birdman notably won the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield, while Sir Delius was competitive in the Makybe Diva. Their form and fitness will offer a direct benchmark for Half Yours over 2000m.
Track conditions and other variables
Rain has complicated preparations: Flemington was rated Heavy 9 after 52mm of rain in the lead-up, introducing uncertainty about how the ground will play. Heavy conditions can change the complexion of a 2000m test and could benefit some runners while disadvantaging others. Connections and punters must factor the going into assessments of each horse's chances.
- Barrier draw for Half Yours and whether McEvoy gets the closer gate he wants.
- Early sectionals and whether Half Yours repeats the section-topping speed he showed in the Makybe Diva.
- How the heavy track affects the top Cox Plate hopefuls and whether any runner appears to prefer softer ground.