Entain warns Brazil’s provisional online-betting ban will push 2026 EBITDA to the low end

# What happened Entain PLC said a provisional Brazilian measure that withdraws operators' authority to offer online sports betting and gaming will push its 2026 core earnings toward the lower end of its guidance. The company kept its full‑year 2026 underlying EBITDA range at £910 million–£960 million and retained its online underlying EBITDA margin target of 21%–22%, but warned the ban would reduce its expected outcome if it remains for the rest of the year.

# Why this matters for Entain The provisional measure published on Sept. 25 takes effect immediately and must be approved by Brazil's Congress within 120 days to stay in force. That creates short‑to‑medium term uncertainty for operators that were building growth plans for the market.

Entain had been forecasting online net gaming revenue growth of 5%–7% for 2026. With the ban, the company now expects full‑year online revenue growth of 4%–6% including Brazil. Excluding Brazil, Entain expects growth toward the top end of its prior 5%–7% guidance on a constant‑currency basis.

Management estimated Brazil would account for roughly 5% of Entain's 2026 online net gaming revenue. The company had previously said the market's earnings contribution would be modest because of intense competition and challenging trading conditions.

# Market reaction and wider context

# Concrete figures Entain left unchanged

• Underlying EBITDA guidance for 2026: £910m–£960m (company expects to be toward the low end if Brazil stays banned).
• Online underlying EBITDA margin target: 21%–22% (again, likely toward the low end if ban persists).
• Revised online net gaming revenue growth including Brazil: 4%–6% (previous target 5%–7%).
• Estimated Brazil contribution to 2026 online net gaming revenue: about 5%.

# What to watch next

• Whether Brazil's Congress approves the provisional measure within 120 days. Congressional action will determine whether the ban becomes longer term.

# Bottom line Entain has not changed its headline targets, but it says the provisional Brazilian ban on online betting will likely push its 2026 results toward the bottom of the guided ranges if the measure remains in force. Brazil represents a small but visible slice of Entain's online revenue plan, and the next 120 days of political process in Brazil will determine whether that contribution is restored or lost for the year.