A Green surge in new polling puts the left bloc in reach with Opportunity holding the balance

The useful part

Both major parties are tied on 28% in the latest 1News-Verian poll, while the Greens have hit a record 16%. The latest 1News-Verian poll has the Greens at 16%, up four points and their best-ever result on that poll, beating their previous high of 15% in July 2017. Labour and National are tied on 28%, with Labour down two and National down one.

How it works

• The poll modelled two scenarios based on how many electorates Te Pāti Māori wins – either four Māori seats plus one for Mariameno Kapa-Kingi's Te Tai Tokerau party, or just one electorate seat for Te Pāti...
• If Christopher Luxon stuck to his ruling out of working with Opportunity, the left bloc would be expected to form a government.
• "But look, I say the same thing whether the polls are up or down, which is that we shouldn't just watch the polls, but realise that New Zealanders have agency." She...
• 'Pretty cool, isn't it?' "Pretty cool, isn't it?" Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick told 1News.

Details worth keeping

To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. 13% of voters did not know or refused to say. In both, Opportunity holds the balance of power.