Aurora’s CFO argues 30,000 driverless trucks by 2030 is achievable, not aspirational

# What Aurora told investors Aurora told investors it expects to have more than 30,000 self-driving trucks generating about $5 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2030. That projection was presented at the company's annual analyst and investor day and discussed in a follow-up interview with CFO David Maday.

Maday acknowledged 30,000 may sound large in autonomy circles but framed it as small relative to the overall truck market, noting four major truck manufacturers produce between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks a year. He said the target is not aspirational.

# How Aurora plans to scale The company currently runs a transportation-as-a-service model where Aurora owns and operates trucks and charges customers roughly $2 per mile, which includes a fuel surcharge. Aurora expects to restrict that model to about 500 trucks as a proof of concept.

The primary scaling lever is a shift to a driver-as-a-service model. Under that plan, customers buy and maintain the trucks and pay Aurora a per-mile subscription for the autonomy system — Aurora expects that fee to be around $0.85 per mile. Aurora would retain responsibility for the self-driving software and associated hardware while customers own the vehicle assets.

Moving trucks off Aurora's balance sheet is critical to scaling quickly and improving unit economics. Aurora expects to reach breakeven gross margins on a run-rate basis in the first half of 2027 with roughly 500 trucks in operation.

# Technology and manufacturing ramp Aurora plans to deploy third-generation hardware — the sensors, computers, and other components that enable self-driving capability — by the end of 2027. That hardware will be mass-produced by partner Aumovio (formerly Continental). Aumovio's role goes beyond manufacturing: it will finance the hardware for Aurora and provide servicing and repairs for customers. That financing and service model is intended to reduce Aurora's capital requirements and simplify customer adoption.

# Timeline and milestones

• End of 2026: Aurora expects to have 200 driverless trucks in operation and an $80 million revenue run rate.
• 2027: Aurora expects to exceed 1,000 trucks and reach breakeven gross margins on a run-rate basis in H1 with ~500 trucks.
• End of 2027: Deployment of third-generation, mass-produced hardware manufactured and financed by Aumovio.
• 2028 onward: Aurora expects improved cost structures and accelerating gross margins as scale and hardware economics improve, with plans to expand coverage across most of the continental U.S. by 2030.

# Market and investor reaction Investors have been skeptical. Aurora's shares declined after the investor day, and shares continued to slide in the days after the presentation. Maday argues the "unlock" begins in 2027 when the company shifts to the asset-light DaaS model and introduces mass-produced hardware.

# Commercial customers and operational data Aurora's transportation-as-a-service customers include Detmar Logistics, Hirschbach, McLane, and Werner. The company reported more than 500,000 driverless miles logged since commercial launch and cites high annualized mileage per truck for some customers, which matters for the economics of the per-mile subscription model.

# Longer-term plans Maday confirmed Aurora still intends to enter the robotaxi market in the longer term once its cost structures have improved and margins expand.

# Bottom line